The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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N.B.
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Dots
* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...
Beach Drinks
ECONOMIC EVENTS
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
***2026***
* Wed. June 17 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
* See UPDATE below... U.S. 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Bonds have been driving through prior resistance and inching upwards since the end of 2018, as shown on the following monthly charts.
Meanwhile, the following monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart shows that price has stalled just below the 200 "New Bull Market" level.
I anticipate that we'll likely see one last-gasp push in equities (SPX and other major indices) to, possibly a slightly higher all-time high, before we see a meaningful pullback/correction. Under that scenario, look for the SPX:VIX to break and hold above 200 and, potentially, retest the 280 all-time ratio high.
However, if the SPX:VIX fails to break and hold above 200 on an SPX rally, then I'd anticipate that we won't see a retest of the prior SPX high set in September 2018, but a fizzle before then, instead.
Either way, I anticipate that bonds will continue to gain ground...albeit perhaps slowly, but steadily.
Of note, is this astute observation from Slope of Hope's, Tim Knight...
I anticipate that a recession is on the way, if not this year, then likely next year...but likely slowing this year. I understand that Europe, China, Canada, and others are all slowing now. Watch the bond markets for clues and continued strength!
Judging by one-day percentages lost, Monday's market action was a bad day for Asian markets, as shown below.
China's Shanghai Index is facing long-term major resistance at current levels, as shown on the following weekly chart of SSEC.
I've shown the input values of the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators as one period. They're both still below the zero level and have, in fact, been declining on recent attempts to move higher during March.
If price breaks and holds above, say, 3150, I'd like to see both of these indicators also break and hold above zero, while making new highs, as well, to confirm the sustainability of any further meaningful advancement beyond that price.
Otherwise, look for this index to retest its last weekly swing low, or plunge lower, inasmuch as its stability at current levels is questionable.
The following is presented without prejudice. * See UPDATES below... Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of alleged Russia-Trump campaign collusion has been concluded, as advised by Attorney General William Barr on Friday, my observations on what's been uncovered (in a nutshell) in that respect, are as follows.
What started out as political opposition research of Donald Trump and his political campaign in 2015/2016 by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, and which was funnelled into the Obama State Department, DOJ and FBI, et al, through multiple sources and turned into a counter-intelligence investigation and subsequent Special Counsel investigation in search of criminal activities and leaked to multiple media outlets in order to, firstly, smear Trump and his chances of being elected as U.S. President, then, to hamstring his presidency, once elected, was, three years later, finally exposed for exactly what it was...a political vendetta and smear campaign and not a criminal matter.
Oppo Research ⇒ Criminal Investigation ⇒ Political Vendetta ⇒ Duped ⇒ Dud!
More on this entire process will be revealed by the U.S. Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, once he completes his separate ongoing internal investigation of numerous DOJ and FBI officials (and any others), which may be released in the next three months, or so.
So, this unabashed, unrelenting three-year political and media anti-Trump smear campaign and legal probe (which was based on salacious and unverified material, according to former FBI Director, James Comey) may end up producing unwanted consequences for the perpetrators involved in this entire complex process...and there could be many people exposed in this scheme. Whether any will be criminally indicted and prosecuted by current DOJ officials remains to be seen. No doubt, there will be much new information to come in the days/weeks ahead, in this regard.
I wonder what damage (not only on domestic matters, but also foreign policy issues) has already been inflicted on the President's ability to properly and fully discharge his duties to the American public, as he was duly elected and sworn in to carry out, because of this smear campaign. Meanwhile, the political chess game will likely continue through to 2020 and beyond, if President Trump is re-elected. At what point do endless and aimless political investigations become political harassment and constitutional overreach?
Attorney General Barr's 4-page summary letter (below) of Special Counsel Mueller's report was released today (the yellow highlight on page 1 is mine)...of note, are the following excerpts...
"...the Special Counsel did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign."
"...Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and I have concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel's investigation is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense. Our determination was made without regard to, and is not based on, the constitutional considerations that surround the indictment and criminal prosecution of a sitting president."
* See UPDATE below... Germany's Manufacturing PMI continued its decline from 2017 highs and entered into contraction mode in January. Data released on Thursday shows this contraction deepening for February, as shown below.
Is this a precursor to a recession? Look for a pattern on next month's release (March 22) for possible clues.
The following monthly area chart of the DAX shows its toppiness on a long-term timeframe, after a long climb from 2003 and 2009 lows.
The following daily area chart of the DAX shows an abundance of overhead supply above the current price.
With two months of manufacturing PMI data now in contraction mode following a steady decline for the past year, it appears that this supply zone may pose a major resistance level for much of any further meaningful/sustainable rally.
Illustrated on the following daily candle chart of the DAX are the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) indicators. I've shown the input value of each as one period and in histogram format to depict daily changes in direction and strength of that direction. Keep an eye on whether or not we see an increase in each of these three on any further rally to determine the likelihood of its continuation into and through this overhead supply zone to eventually retest prior highs, or vice versa on a reversal/pullback/major selloff to retest December 2018 lows, or drop lower.
* UPDATE March 22...
Oops...contraction deepens! The next release date is April 24...
Amazon (AMZN) is forming a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern, as shown on the following weekly chart.
We'll see whether it plays out, in view of their decision today (Thursday) to abandon their project to build their second headquarters in Long Island, Queens...at a loss of 25,000 job for New York. Their statement is here and it describes the political opposition it received.
Keep an eye on the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC), and average true range (ATR) indicators for direction and velocity purposes going forward. I've shown their input value as one period to illustrate that more clearly.
Core Retail Sales m/m data released today (Thursday) were drastically in the red...a harbinger of things to come, or just a blip? One to watch over the coming months. Another month like this last one could hit AMZN and other retail giants hard.
If you want to create a liquidity crisis in U.S. equity markets, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. If you want to create an economic crisis, in America, as well as the rest of the world, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. Foreign and domestic investment in the U.S. will disappear.
As it is, U.S. and global markets have been fragile and volatile for over a year, and absurd political games such as this will only suck the liquidity out and increase volatility at an ever-accelerating pace. Offshore U.S. corporate monies will never be repatriated and invested in America. In fact, more funds will be hidden in offshore accounts under this scenario. This deal is a clever counter-measure to President Trump'sTax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted on December 20, 2017. When companies fail to bring offshore monies to the U.S. by the 2020 election, Democrats will claim that the President's policies haven't worked and that Americans should, instead, embrace their ideology. Any benefits gained from this Act will be shattered. At that time, I was pondering whether the Dow 30 Index would reach 25,000. In fact, it reached a high of 26,951.81 in early October 2018 (just prior to the U.S. midterm elections) before it started to tank, and, interestingly enough, it's hovering just above 25,100, as of Friday's close.
You can see from the following weekly chart of the MSCI World Global Index that price rallied, after touching major support at 1800, and is now sitting at a critical intersection of a long-term uptrending Andrew's Pitchfork median and major price resistance level around 2030.
Inasmuch as many Democrats are on board with this destructive deal (adding to political headwinds as I described in this post) and not many Republicans and the business world have dismissed it yet, no doubt more support for it will continue to grow, especially among Millennials.
Just wait until the big bank executives are hauled before Democrat Maxine Waters' Financial Services Committee (on which Ms. Ocasia-Cortez sits as a member) and watch this political farce continue.
Keep an eye on the MSCI World Global Index, because if that begins to implode, you'll see U.S. markets follow suit.
Perhaps GOLD will become the favoured hedge for traders/investors against such a catastrophic scenario...and we'll see the rally accelerate, as I described recently in this post.
Now it looks like Democrats (including Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation) may be faced with serious investigations involving potential collusion with Russia and threats to national security on a variety of matters in the coming weeks, according to this latest report from The Hill's John Solomon. It's anticipated that the U.S. Inspector General will release a report by late spring/early summer in this regard, along with FISA abuse by the DOJ and FBI leading up to the 2016 election and beyond. As well, Senator Lindsay Graham will be investigating these issues, along with this FISA abuse, via his Senate Judiciary Committee.
And, thanks to active socialist resistance to Amazon's proposal to build a second headquarters in Long Island, Queens from New York politicians such as Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, Amazon are abandoning their project, which would have created 25,000 jobs...their statement is below.
We'll see if Virginia's politicians are any friendlier towards and supportive of capitalism than New York's...
So, Democrats' far-left socialist movement is already underway and is, seemingly, effective at stopping capitalism in its tracks.
Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell is planning to force a vote in the Senate on this "Green New Deal." We'll see if Senate Democrats and their 2020 Presidential candidates will "put their money where their mouth is" to support it...or not.
And, is this constitutional overreach by Democrats?...take a look at this Associated Press article, "House Panel Seeks Documents on 81 People Linked to Trump." How will House Democrats find any time to draft legislation over the next two years that actually benefits Americans when all their attention is focused on these shenanigans?
REALITY CHECK: A good reason to NOT adopt the "Green New Deal"...it would add trillions to the already ballooning $22 Trillion National Debt!
P.S. They're coming for your cows...time to stock up on Big Macs! 😊
Judge Jeanine's Opening Statement Feb. 9, 2019 on Fox News TV's "Justice With Judge Jeanine"
* UPDATE March 26...
This series of tweets from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell mentions that the Senate will vote today to begin debate on the Democrats' Green New Deal...stay tuned...
RESULTS OF THE VOTE...all Republicans voted "against" beginning to debate the Green New Deal...the Democrats did not vote "for" or "against" and, instead, voted "present."
So, it looks like Democrats don't even support a discussion of their own deal in the Senate, despite their on-air declarations of support to the media and to Americans...so, it will not be advanced in the Senate.
Rather, it appears to simply be a 2020 election tool/prop and not a serious proposal that they're willing to defend in Congress.
