Xmas Rally?...or Xmas Deepfreeze?...

There are 4 more FOMC meetings before Xmas...the fourth is on December 13. The Fed should have a good idea of how things are going from information contained in the Beige Book (which is made public on November 30) in order to guesstimate how the fourth quarter will end for 2011. Perhaps we'll get a signal from the Fed as to what their next move will be with respect to economic conditions and their remedies for any malaise that may be around at that time.

It would seem from Mr. Bernanke's talk this week that he is focused on long term economic conditions, and this says to me that he is willing to throw more money at the markets in the shorter term at some point...this and his unwillingness to begin to reduce the deficit at this time. The crucial question is, when will he begin to reduce the deficit, instead of wildly throwing more money at the wall (street) and hoping it will stick? Especially if he still doesn't know why his "recovery" isn't happening at that time. That would be akin to a Surgeon performing brain surgery to try and fix a sore foot without knowing the cause.

And, please, Mr. Bernanke, produce only credible causes if you have anything to report at that time.

"The recession has hit everybody...I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail."

Author--Anonymous

Volume Spikes on YM, ES, NQ & TF...etc.

The downside volume spikes on the 9:00a.m. candle of the 1-hour charts of  YM, ES, NQ & TF today may signal the resumption of the recent downtrend as shown on the chart below...a bearish crossover of the 50sma (red) below the 200sma (pink) would confirm this along with a break of and hold below the recent lows:

Below is a 1-hour (market hours only) chart of TF...note the unfilled gaps at the beginning of Tuesday's and today's actions...if today's gap is left unfilled, a bearish island gap will result for these 3 days (the blue dotted line is the Monthly VWAP which is just above the top of today's gap):

Below is a chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF...each candle represents 3 days...the current candle started today...should be interesting to see how this candle closes on Monday.

Below is a 4-hour chart of  TF which shows the "Blue Triangle" trendlines that I've mentioned recently...at the moment, price is trapped in between trendlines...a break of the white trendline, could take price down to around 755-750ish (yellow trendline):

The price level of 755-750ish co-incides with that mentioned in my previous post on June 4 (and the 50sma on the Weekly chart):  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/really-big-pictureym-es-nq-tf.html

Recovery...only a few fibs away...

How can Bernanke say that the U.S. is in recovery when things are getting worse...housing...unemployment...inflation...and that is after the Fed has thrown billions of dollars into the hands of the banks? And, how can he say that the second half of 2011 will be better if he doesn't know why things are worse? Hmmmm...my eyes are wide open...
 The 4-hourly chartgrid below of GS, C, XLF & JPM shows that upward momentum has not resumed in the Financials in a meaningful way yet and that, in fact, the downtrend which began in the early part of this year is still in force in this sector:

TF Re-visits "Blue Triangle" Trendline...EUR/USD & the "Fight at the 50"

I've referred to a "Blue Triangle" formation on the TF in several posts over the past few weeks...it's shown on the 4-hour chart below. As can be seen, price returned to one of the triangle trendlines in play today (at around 800.00ish) after finding support at a parallel trendline (yellow) (at around 770.00ish) last week. This triangle trendline is in between the 50sma (red) and the 200sma (pink)...price may bounce around in between these two moving averages until either a new uptrend forms, or the downtrend continues.

For a clue on what the TF does tomorrow (along with YM, ES & NQ), it's probably worthwhile watching EUR/USD to see if price makes it (and holds) above near-term resistance (the 50sma--red) on the Daily chart below, or whether it falls into decline once more...

"The recession has hit everybody...CEO's are now playing miniature golf."

Author--Anonymous

Patience...Gold/Silver/Copper/Oil...EUR/USD

Commodities are trying to find their way, but are still mired in mush as shown on the 4-hour charts:

It appears that 1.4425 could be an important resistance level and that 1.424 could be an important support level (on a near-term basis) for the EUR/USD...price is consolidating within a triangle and around the rising 50sma (red) on the Daily chart:

Might as well curl up with something you like until direction is established...

Japan's Nikkei is hovering...

The NKD is hovering just above a critical level of support on the Daily chart:

I'll be watching this e-mini futures index to see how it correlates with the YM, ES, NQ & TF this coming week...and whether or not they'll take a further dip...

How the YM, ES, NQ & TF closed out their last Opt. Exp. period...

Each candle on the charts below represents a one month Opt. Exp. period for the YM, ES, NQ & TF...the last candle represents the May-June OPEX period...as can been seen, a fair amount of distribution has taken place since January of this year. According to the Chaikin Money Flow indicator, the TF has lost the most money so far this year, followed by NQ, ES and then YM.

The pivot points for the next Opt. Exp. period (June-July) are as follows:

YM = 12099

ES = 1288.50

NQ = 2249.25

TF = 799.50

Overlayed on each of the Daily charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF is a one-month Opt. Exp. period Volume Profile...the POC is represented by the red horizontal lines...the May-June POC for each is as follows:

YM = 11943

ES = 1296.25

NQ = 2314

TF = 786

"Insufficient Funds"...

"You know the recession is bad...
if the bank returns your cheque marked 'Insufficient Funds,'
you call them and ask if they meant you or them!"

Author--Anonymous

USD/CAD...1.015, eh?...1.05, eh?...call me crazy...

If USD/CAD can clear and hold above 0.98, price may have a chance at eventually reaching 1.015...see IH&S formation on Daily chart below...so far the 50sma (red) is holding as near-term support after generally acting as resistance since April 2009...on a longer look ahead, price swirled around 1.05 from October 2009 until September 2010 when it finally started a decline to a low of 0.94446 in May 2011 (see second chart below)...perhaps price will somehow find its way back to that level...yeah, and maybe the Vancouver Canucks will win the Stanley Cup next year!...I can say this because I'm a Canadian, eh...:

Blow me down...YM, ES, NQ & TF...EUR/USD...

Well, blow me down...

after more musical chairs...

the markets have taken another dip...

Note today's volume spike on the 4-hour charts of YM, ES, NQ & TF below:

EUR/USD once again dipped and closed below the Daily 50sma (red) and the downtrend line from July 2008 (price is back below near-term support):



"Break Dancing" with the Markets...

Talk about a roller coaster ride lately on the Daily chart of USD/CAD...

Also a "big picture" roller coaster ride on the YM, ES, NQ & TF since January of this year...each candle on the the charts below represents a one month Opt. Exp. period...the current candle will close this Friday:

"Gliver"...

Apples to oranges...

"Your imagination is your preview of life's coming attractions."

Author--Albert Einstein, Physicist

Enjoy the week ahead...

The Mayonnaise Jar...

When things in your life seem almost too much to handle,
When 24 hours in a day is not enough,
Remember the mayonnaise jar and 2 cups of coffee...

A professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in front of him. When the class began, wordlessly, he picked up a very large and empty mayonnaise jar and proceeded to fill it with golf balls. He then asked the students if the jar was full. They agreed that it was. The professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the jar. He shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open areas between the golf balls. He then asked the students again if the jar was full. They agreed it was. The professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar. Of course, the sand filled up everything else. He asked once more if the jar was full. The students responded with a unanimous 'yes.' The professor then produced two cups of coffee from under the table and poured the entire contents into the jar, effectively filling the empty space between the sand. The students laughed. 'Now,' said the professor, as the laughter subsided, 'I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life. The golf balls are the important things - family, children, health, friends, and favorite passions - things that if everything else was lost and only they remained, your life would still be full. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, house, and car. The sand is everything else - the small stuff.' 'If you put the sand into the jar first,' he continued, 'there is no room for the pebbles or the golf balls. The same goes for life. If you spend all your time and energy on the small stuff, you will never have room for the things that are important to you. So... pay attention to the things that are critical to your happiness. Play with your children. Take time to get medical checkups. Take your partner out to dinner. There will always be time to clean the house and fix the disposal. Take care of the golf balls first - the things that really matter. Set your priorities. The rest is just sand.'

One of the students raised her hand and inquired what the coffee represented.

The professor smiled. 'I'm glad you asked. It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem, there's always room for a couple of cups of coffee with a friend.' 

Gold, Silver, Copper & Oil...turned to mush...

The Daily charts below of Gold, Silver, Copper & Oil show the lack of interest and direction lately...a reflection of the markets in general:

At least there's one thing that still seems to keep all of us interested:

Except some of us must have started diets in May of this year...pullback shown on the Weekly chart of $DJUSFD below...note the confluence of the rising 50sma (red), the declining 200sma (pink), the -1 Deviation of an uptrending regression channel, and the POC (horizontal red line) of the Dec/10 & Jan/11 monthly TPO Profiles: