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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
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Sunday, April 23, 2017

EUR:USD in Battle to Redefine Resistance as Support

As can be seen from the following Monthly chart of the EUR:USD Forex pair, after today's (April 23) first round of the French Presidential election, price is currently in a battle to regain a foothold above major resistance at 1.09.

A break and hold above this level could see a further push to the next major hurdle around 1.15. At the moment, the Momentum indicator is still below zero...watch for a confirming break and hold above that level on such an upward push. Otherwise, failure to break above 1.09 with conviction could see a retest of 1.03, or lower.

We may not see a clear path forward until the runoff election, which is to be held between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in France on May 7.


Friday, April 21, 2017

Tech Sector Holds The Key

As of mid-day on Friday (April 21), and during the past couple of range-bound months, the Technology sector is outperforming the large-cap and small-cap stocks, as shown on the following charts.

It's still sitting above both its 20 and 50 day moving averages, while the Dow 30, S&P 500, S&P 100, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 Indices are below their 50 MA, with bearish 20 and 50 MA crossovers.

I'd watch for any signs of major weakness developing in Tech as a potential precursor to any significant drop in equities, in general. Otherwise, we could see a continued non-directional bias in the markets for some time.





Monday, April 10, 2017

10 & 30 Year Bonds Versus Equities

As can be seen from the following long-term view of 10 and 30 year bonds (monthly charts), each is facing an imminent decision...whether to break fairly substantial major support at their current levels and, potentially, fall to levels not seen since the 2008/09 financial crisis, or resume their flight-to-safety bounce to retest prior highs.



Further to my comments of March 25, it's my opinion that if market players catch even a whiff of resistance by the majority of Congress to support and advance President Trump's ambitious agenda, particularly as it relates to tax and regulation reform, infrastructure spending and national security, in a timely manner (i.e. by August or sooner) (not to mention a potential government shutdown after April 28), we'll see money flow flood into bonds and out of equities.

For example, watch for a break and hold above the 50 day moving average and near-term resistance at 0.065 on the following daily ratio chart of 30 Year bonds vs. SPX.


In the meantime, it's difficult to ascertain what will move equity markets one way or the other, as they're mired in a consolidation format after having made 3 Trillion dollar gains in four months (from the November 2016 election), as opposed to what would normally take about a year to achieve (as I had forecast for 2017 in my post of December 1, 2016).


Perhaps, with little major overhead price resistance, equities will form a new leg up, slowly and choppily, until such negative political alarm bells begin to ring. However, we may get an advance warning with bond money flow, as I've outlined above.


Sunday, April 09, 2017

It's What Makes The World Go Round

Since I have nothing further to add from my posts of March 25 and 30 regarding stalled markets, I'll, instead, post this gem from this week's "smile file"...