WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...

TGIF

TGIF

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. Oct. 31 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. Nov. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Fri. Nov. 3 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Nov. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Nov. 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. Dec. 12 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. Dec. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Sunday, July 26, 2015

30-Year U.S. Bonds at Crossroads

The following 1-Year Daily chart of 30-Year U.S. Bonds ($USB) shows that a bearish moving average Death Cross has recently formed -- warning that lower prices may be in store. However, the rising RSI indicates building strength from May through July.


Near-term major resistance lies at 155.00, while longer-term major support sits at 150.00, as shown on the following 5-Year Daily chart. We may see price break through both sides of this 150.00-155.00 consolidation zone before market participants make a final decision "for" or "against" this bond...watch to see which side of 50.00 that the RSI, either, aligns with, or diverges from, that final choice to confirm sustainability of that direction.


The key to direction may lie in how well the U.S. $ performs in the near-term. The following 5-Year Daily chart of $USD compares price action to $USB. Price has, basically, moved in tandem on both of these instruments since mid-2013. The RSI is still in an uptrend from May and above the 50.00 level on $USD, and major price resistance lies at 98.00.


However, the following 5-Year Daily ratio chart of $USD:$USB shows that, recent attempts by $USD to break and hold above the 98.00 price level have been futile, while buying has strengthened each time in $USB. I'd watch the 0.630 major support level on this chart to see if the U.S. $ can regain a bullish bias...a breakout and hold above 0.660, together with a move on the RSI back above the 50.00 level would reinforce that scenario.