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Monday, May 12, 2014

Russian vs German Indices

The following 3-year Daily Ratio chart of the Russian Index vs. the German Index shows a very recent bounce in favour of Russia, following a 3 year relative decline in Russia's strength in the markets. All three technical indicators have now been pulled into positive territory (above their mid-points), and price has bounced above the declining 50 day moving average. Major resistance sits around the declining 200 day moving average.

I'd watch to see if these levels are held in the days/weeks ahead as a possible gauge of any easing of tensions between these two countries and softening of sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine situation...resulting in a strengthening of the Russian markets. Otherwise, a drop and hold below the March lows could spell bigger political unrest and trouble ahead.

In any event, there is room for some large and volatile price swings in between the 200 day moving average and the March lows until a clean break and hold is made either above or below those levels. Such movements may tie in with any volatile movements that may occur in the U.S. markets, as I described in my last post.