As you can see from the Year-to-date chart below, much of the 2012 gains have been lost in the Major Indices since September/October. The Dow 30 has been the weakest performer this year, followed by the Russell 2000, the S&P 500, then the Nasdaq 100 Index.
Inasmuch as the Dow 30 is the weakest-performing index at the moment, it's the one to watch for either continued weakness or a buying turnaround with conviction. It's only up 3.03% on the year now versus a little over 11% about one month ago.
Without some major economic improvements occurring in Europe, China, and the U.S. in the near future, as well as strong Q4 earnings (versus weak Q3 earnings), it's likely that these Major Indices will have a difficult time producing a convincing and sustainable rally of much relevance (to actual economic conditions).
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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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