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Thursday, September 06, 2012

Percentage Increases Year-to-Date for Equities, Emerging Markets, Commodities, and Agriculture

The Year-to-date Daily chart below shows the percentages gained in 2012 for the S&P 500 Index, the Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), the Commodities ETF (DBC), and the Agricultural ETF (DBA).

So far, the SPX has outperformed, with a gain of 12%, followed by DBA and DBC tied at just under 4%, and EEM with a gain of just under 3%.


Since the dip in June, the leaders, percentage-wise, have been DBC and DBA, as shown on the chart below.


Since the beginning of August, the DBC and DBA have, generally, levelled out, while the SPX and EEM rallied hard today (Thursday), and have taken over the lead for percentage gained in the past five days, as shown on the two charts below.



As can be seen from the first chart, there is plenty of upside percentage potential for the remainder of the year for the Commodities, Agriculture, and Emerging Markets ETFs. They are worth monitoring, along with the SPX, to see whether the "Risk-On" trade continues in these instruments...with or without further stimulus from the Fed, who will, no doubt, be keeping an eye on inflation.

Volatility has dropped over the past three days, as the SPX:VIX ratio pair bounced back above the bottom channel, as shown on the Year-to-date Daily chart below.


I would remind you of the major resistance and support levels on this ratio pair, as mentioned in my post of August 17th, and which are shown on the updated 20-year Monthly chart below. A hold above 85.00 would support the bull case for a further rally on the SPX as price potentially retests last month's high and the higher levels achieved prior to 2008. This is roughly in line with the Apex of the uptrending lower channel and recent downtrend line shown on the chart above.