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...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...




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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Big Drop in Aussie Private Capital Expenditure

Data released Wednesday evening shows a big drop (into negative territory) in Private Capital Expenditure in Australia, as shown on the graph below.

Since it's a "leading indicator of economic health," it's one worth monitoring over the next months/quarter.

At the moment, the AUS/USD forex pair is trading in a range in between major price resistance and the +1 deviation regression channel level, as shown on the Daily chart below. Inasmuch as the MACD, Stochastics, RSI, and ROC indicators are diverging negatively, it's one to watch...near-term support lies around a confluence level of 1.04.

The Daily chart below of the Australian Index shows that price has stalled at major resistance. There are negative divergences on the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators. Price is still subject to the influences of the existing bearish 50/200 sma Death Cross formation, and will be until such time as price breaks and holds convincingly above major resistance, and the moving averages cross to form a bullish Golden Cross pattern.

As I write this post late Wednesday evening, the Australian Index is currently trading 0.90% below Wednesday's close, as shown on the 5-day intraday chart below.

So, on my radar for the days ahead are the AUS/USD forex pair and the Australian Index to watch for possible further weakness, since a drop in business investment levels can be an early signal of declining future economic activity such as hiring, spending, and earnings.