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The charts and comments in my Blog (posted in Eastern Time) represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of markets...
*World Indices *U.S. Indices *Futures *U.S. Equities & Sectors *ETFs *Commodities *Forex
...an expanded version of the "Observations" section in my private Daily Trading Journal.

*** N.B. to my readers: Although I stopped trading in July 2013, I still take a peek at the markets now and then and post the occasional article here on my Blog.
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Kittens

Kittens

EVENTS

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Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Major Indices Update for January 17, 2012

The support and resistance levels for the Major Indices noted in my post on January 10th still apply.

In that post, I also made reference to a 10-Day 30-Minute chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF and said that any repeated attempts to advance convincingly beyond the highs of the first week in January would need to be accompanied by higher volumes. The horizontal white line on the updated chartgrid below represents that week's high. We can see that:
  • the YM has struggled to stay above that level on building volumes, and today's advance took place in overnight trading on very low volumes...price fell back to the range high which is near-term support
  • the ES has managed to stay above this range high, for the most part, on building volumes, and today's advance also took place in overnight trading on very low volumes...price is trading just above the 200 sma (pink) and last week's Volume Profile POC (yellow horizontal line) on this timeframe
  • the NQ has also managed to stay above this range high, for the most part, on building volumes, and today's advance also took place in overnight trading on very low volumes...price is trading just below its 50 sma (red)
  • the TF has also managed to stay above this range high, for the most part, on building volumes, and today's advance also took place in overnight trading on very low volumes...price is trading below both moving averages, just above last week's Volume Profile POC, and just above the 10-day Volume Profile POC (red horizontal line) at the right edge of the chart


Inasmuch as today's sell-off during market hours wiped out most of the overnight gains on the YM, ES & TF, I'd look for, firstly, today's low to hold as near-term support, and, secondly, the range high to hold as support...this range high is roughly in line with the support levels for the Major Indices mentioned in my January 10th post. Also, since the Nasdaq 100 is outpacing the other three in terms of relative strength, it's my opinion that any perceived reversal below that range high by these three would need the Nasdaq to come on board, and all on high volumes, together with a cross (and hold) of the 50 sma below the 200 sma. Otherwise, we may see further attempts to push higher. The 10-Day percentage comparison chart below shows this relative strength on the Nasdaq and the weakening of the Dow 30.


The updated Daily chart below of the U.S. $ shows that it is also holding above its near-term support level of 81.00...an important level for the $ bulls to hold, as I mentioned in my January 10th post.