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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Major Indices...Macro & Mini Views

Below are a series of Daily Year-to-Date charts of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & Russell 2000 Indices. Comments for each are provided as follows.

The Dow closed today immediately below a price resistance level of 12200 and above a confluence of a 78.6% Fibonacci fan line and a 61.8% Fibonacci arc. A close and hold above 12200 could fuel a further rally up towards 12450ish.


The S&P 500 closed today immediately below a trendline resistance level of 1265 and above a price support level of 1260. Unlike the Dow, there is major resistance above, beginning at 1270.


The Nasdaq 100 closed today immediately below a trendline resistance level of 2321 and above a price support level of 2300. There is immediate overhead major resistance above at 2340.


The Russell 2000 closed today immediately below a confluence of Fibonacci fan line and Fibonacci arc at 747.00 and above a price support level of 740.00. There is considerable resistance overhead beginning at 750.00.


The Daily Year-to-Date percentage comparison chart below of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & Russell 2000 shows that the Dow has regained the lead in strength over the Nasdaq...the Russell has pretty much been the weakest all year.


The 1-Day 1-minute percentage comparison chart below of the 4 indices shows that strength still lies with the Dow...the Russell dipped quite a bit more this morning, but closed just ahead of the Nasdaq.


Finally, and further to my earlier post today, the 5-Day 15-minute chartgrid below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF shows today's dip and rally back above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its 5-day range. The 50 sma (red) has now also crossed below the 200 sma (pink) in a bearish Death Cross formation on the ES...the YM is the only one that hasn't yet weakened sufficiently to make this formation.


The Major Indices are preparing for a further push upwards...but are awaiting results of the ECB rate decision and press conference tomorrow morning pre-market, and, possibly, further details from the EU Summit. The resistance levels are described above...a failure to advance and hold above them with conviction could send these markets back down, once more into their large, unwieldy August trading range...I'm still mindful of the numerous unfilled gaps below, which don't fill me with great confidence for a sustained rally. Any serious pullback would have to see the Dow come on board...I'll look for any such weakening to appear in the last two charts in the days/weeks ahead.