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Wednesday, October 05, 2011

A closer look at the YM, ES, NQ & TF

In yesterday's post, I referred to a 3 days/candle timeframe on the YM, ES, NQ & TF. Here's how Day 3 of the current candle closed today...all on a bull harami hammer. They re-tested and broke below the August low, except for the NQ, which is still displaying relative strength to the other e-minis.


For a closer look at each one, I've posted 4-hourly charts below with commentary.

For the YM...price ended today just below a confluence level (at 11000ish) of the "mean" of a longer and a shorter downtrending regression channel, and the 50 sma (red). This counter-trend push back up into the large trading range for the past two days has been on high volumes, but today's last green candle (1:00 p.m.) had weaker volumes. Price is, once again, back in the vicinity of the August 8th range (after the S&P downgrade of the U.S. credit rating) as traders seem reluctant to make a decisive move away from this area, and it has, generally, formed the "mean" around which price is swirling. At the moment, it is in the lower one-third of the entire move down from the May highs to yesterday's lows and is, therefore, still, technically, ripe for further weakness at these levels. We'll see where price moves over the next days/weeks.


For the ES...price ended today just below a confluence level (at 1140ish) of the "mean" of a longer downtrending regression channel and the 50 sma (red)...the "mean of a shorter downtrending regression channel is just above at 1150ish. This counter-trend push back up into the large trading range for the past two days has been on high volumes, but today's last green candle (1:00 p.m.) had weaker volumes. Price is, once again, back in the vicinity of the August 8th range as traders seem reluctant to make a decisive move away from this area, and it has, generally, formed the "mean" around which price is swirling. At the moment, it is in the lower one-third of the entire move down from the May highs to yesterday's lows and is, therefore, still, technically, ripe for further weakness at these levels. We'll see where price moves over the next days/weeks.


For the NQ...price ended today just below a confluence level (at 2170ish) of the "mean" of a longer downtrending regression channel, the -1 deviation level of a shorter uptrending regression channel, the 50 sma (red), and the 200 sma (pink). This counter-trend push back up to remain within the large trading range for the past two days has been on high volumes, but today's last green candle (1:00 p.m.) had weaker volumes. Price is, once again, back in the vicinity of the August 8th range as traders seem reluctant to make a decisive move away from this area, and it has, generally, formed the "mean" around which price is swirling. At the moment, it is in the lower portion of the middle one-third of the entire move down from the July highs to yesterday's lows and is, still displaying relative strength to the other 3 e-minis. It is, however, still, technically, ripe for further weakness while it remains below the current confluence level. We'll see where price moves over the next days/weeks.


For the TF...price ended today just below a confluence level (at 660ish) of the "mean" of a longer and a shorter downtrending regression channel, and the 50 sma (red). This counter-trend push back up into the large trading range for the past two days has been on high volumes, but today's last green candle (1:00 p.m.) had weaker volumes. Price is, once again, back in the vicinity of the August 8th range as traders seem reluctant to make a decisive move away from this area, and it has, generally, formed the "mean" around which price is swirling. At the moment, it is in the lower one-third of the entire move down from the May highs to yesterday's lows and is, therefore, still, technically, ripe for further weakness at these levels. We'll see where price moves over the next days/weeks.


In closing, I would also note that the 50 sma is either still below (as in the case of the YM) or has again crossed below the 200 sma (as in the case of the other 3 e-minis) in a "Death Cross" formation...which is a bearish continuation pattern. Whether or not the action of the past two days has begun a reversal of or another bounce within this downtrend remains to be seen...at the moment, they're all at a confluence level of resistance and still ripe for further weakness. I'll continue to watch these charts for further clues on strength versus weakness in the days/weeks ahead.