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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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Monday, August 08, 2011

Xmas came early...

My post of June 23 refers:  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/xmas-666.html
Xmas came early this year for the TF...it hit its target of 666 today and closed lower...



My post of August 3 refers:  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/08/3-day-candles-close-todayym-es-nq-tf.html
The downside targets on this 3-day timeframe for the ES and TF were actualized today...the targets were based on candle closes...Day 3 of the last long red candle closed today on this updated chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ and TF:


To think that today's drop in the U.S. equity markets was the result of a ratings downgrade is, not only naive, it's downright delusional. The markets had not made a meaningful sustained advance all year. Economic growth had slowed, and not just over this past weekend. In fact, markets around the world have been consolidating and declining and are facing their own economic problems. The decline in equity markets world-wide has also included a substantial decline in commodities, except for Gold, with confirmation on the decline coming from the financial markets.

The Fed's meeting concludes tomorrow and we'll have their summary report at 2:15p.m. EDT. I don't believe that there is really anything that they can say or do that will change the contracting macro-economic condition that is developing all over the world, including in the U.S. (and, at the same time, not unduly accelerate the rising debt problem). As we've seen by the non-performance in the markets for 2011, as well as from economic data as it has unfolded, QE2 didn't work and confidence has gone into hiding (along with cash). The rug has been pulled out from under, not just Mr. Obama, but also from other world leaders, as well. I don't believe the markets have reached a stable bottom yet.

There are two red herrings for me at the moment...they are the US$ and the EUR/USD forex pair. I had projected targets of 80.00 and 1.33, respectively, for them...these targets were to have gone hand-in-hand with a move down by the TF to 666 by Xmas (also mentioned in my post of June 23)...that hasn't happened yet. Although the US$ has shown some signs of firming, I haven't seen a great stampede for its purchase...certainly not matching the waterfall decline in the equity markets...possibly because of the buying frenzy in Gold...if there is ever a substantial blow-off in Gold, perhaps the US$ will benefit.

Politicians are responsible for the running of any country and are accountable to their electorate. That is their job...I do not believe that meddling in the affairs of the markets falls into their job descriptions. If there are any systemic problems, they have been brought about by their policies and laws. How would YOU rate the job they've done to date? We all have our jobs to do...let's hope they begin to do theirs in earnest, and soon.