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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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Thursday, August 04, 2011

Thursday's Plunge...YM, ES, NQ & TF

I will simply post a series of chartgrids of YM, ES, NQ & TF in various timeframes with a brief comment on each tonight, as well as a couple of other charts.

Grid #1 shows Weekly line  charts with a regression channel overlayed which begins at the March 2009 lows. Price is currently trading after-hours (in relation to this channel) as follows:
YM = just above -1 deviation level
ES = just below the -1 deviation level
NQ = about 30% above the -1 deviation level
TF = just below the -1 deviation level

We'll see whether or not price stabilizes at this level...if not, they could eventually drop to the -2 deviation level.


Grid #2 shows Weekly charts with 2 sets of Fibonacci retracement levels overlayed...the first begins at the March 2009 lows and the second begins at the July 2010 lows. Price has reached a fib confluence "zone" on YM, ES & TF, while NQ is still showing relative strength on this grid. If price doesn't stabilize at this level, the next confluence zone is around the 38.2% level on the larger fib retracement.


Grid #3 shows 3-Day charts about which I've had several posts this week. The current candle began today and will end next Monday, the day before the Fed meeting concludes and reports at 2:15p.m. EDT. YM finally broke and closed the day below its March low and made a new closing low (on the Daily timeframe) for 2011. Whether or not NQ follows suit to make a new closing low for the year remains to be seen...as does whether or not the 4 e-minis will eventually reach their H&S targets.


Grid #4 shows a 4-hour timeframe with 2 regression channels...my latest post on this was yesterday. All 4 e-minis broke and closed below the -2 deviation level of the longer uptrending channel. YM, ES & TF also closed below the -2 deviation level of the shorter downtrending channel, signalling extreme weakness, and NQ is currently trading just above this level. All 4 e-minis are displaying extreme weakness on this timeframe. It remains to be seen as to whether price will stabilize or continue their high-volume drops.


Grid #5 shows Daily charts of several Volatility Indices. The VIX, VXV, VXO and RVX closed above the March 2011 highs today. We'll see if volatility continues to rise and if the VXN follows suit.


The last chart shows a Daily timeframe of Japan's Nikkei 225 Futures Index, the NKD. I've written a number of posts about this index because, for the most part, it has traded almost hand-in-hand on an intraday basis with the above 4 e-minis since the earthquake. Price closed below a critical level of support of 9320 today...this level was established after price bounced following the panic selling which happened after the earthquake in March this year. We'll see if this level now serves as resistance and whether the sell-off continues tomorrow.