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Wednesday, August 03, 2011

3-Day Candles close today...YM, ES, NQ & TF

Yesterday's post below refers. The last red candle on the 3-Day chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF began on Monday and closed today...the next candle has begun in after-hours trading. As can be seen on the chart below, ES & TF both closed below their respective H&S "necklines" on this timeframe on high volumes...the necklines are based on closes, rather than prior swing lows, as explained in my post on June 27: 

In the event that these H&S formations eventually actualize, the potential downside targets would be:
YM = 10537 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 1168 points)
ES = 1158 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 107.75 points)
NQ = 1953.50 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 237.25 points)
TF = 684.20 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 93.90 points)

Depending on whether or not we've seen a near-term low established by today's bounce into the close and whether or not the buying pressure continues, I've drawn Fibonacci retracements on the 3-Day chartgrid below (beginning from the year's high to today's low). Should the rally continue, the 40% retracement levels are:
YM = 12116
ES = 1285
NQ = 2322.50
TF = 795.10

In the case of YM, ES & TF, these retracement levels are near the green horizontal lines (which represent the high of the green candle which began on June 20 and from which the last rally ensued for all 4 e-minis).

However, sustained buying will have to firstly occur (and hold) above the last red 3-Day candle's pivot point (PP) which is as follows:
YM = 11916
ES = 1264.50
NQ = 2317
TF = 775.40

Below is an updated 4-hour chartgrid with 2 regression channels...I also made reference to these charts in my post below. Currently, YM is trading just above the -2 deviation level of the larger uptrending channel, ES is trading just below, TF is trading just below, and NQ is trading just above the -1 deviation level. It will be important for these e-minis to trade (and hold) above their -2 deviation levels in order to preserve the integrity of this uptrending channel on this intraday timeframe.