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Thursday, July 28, 2011

YM, ES, NQ & TF slipping...

Below are 4-hour line-charts of YM, ES, NQ & TF with two regression channels overlayed on them...the longer one (uptrending--Channel #1) begins in December 2010 and the shorter one (downtrending--Channel #2) begins in May of this year.

Current facts about price relative to these two channels on this timeframe are as follows:

  • Price on YM & ES is at an important intersection of the -1 deviation level of Channel #1 and the "mean" of Channel #2...in fact, price is just below this intersection in after-hours trading as I write this post.
  • Price on NQ is currently just below the "mean" of Channel #1 and in between the +1 deviation level and the "mean" of Channel #2.
  • Price on TF is currently trading below the -1 deviation of Channel #1 and in between the "mean" and the -1 deviation level of Channel #2.
In terms of relative strength, I'd rate NQ as the leader, followed by YM & ES, and finally TF. Any sustained rally by these e-minis would require the participation of TF, and, conversely, any sustained breakdown would require the participation of NQ. A sustained breakdown below 12240 by YM and below 1300 by ES would endanger a potential advance to new highs for this year in the near-term...as it stands at the moment, these price levels will  need to be re-captured and held. Attempted intraday rallies have failed to hold so far this week, and all, except NQ, have made consecutive lower closes each day.