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Monday, April 18, 2011

Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary - 4-15-11

RVX (CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index) is approaching low levels reached pre-Sept. '08:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/f301ff69-2a59-41bb-875c-2534b6f418d5

Sugar hit & closed near lower Reg Channel on Weekly chart:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/d04e017a-8e1c-4c0d-95ac-68ae62a189f8

N.B. This chart is a 3-candle/day chart (the last candle finished Apr. 15)...Copper trying to find support @ 4.255 (still above 50sma):     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/2c6d13f4-2a22-439f-a091-b20e0c73b840

Weekly chart of Oil...finished back down & within upper area of uptrending regression channel:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/0c3ee6d1-a522-4a98-a90d-44af5d60864e

Gold has surpassed GS' target of 1480 which they announced on Mar. 17:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/aff3cbf4-63b2-45f2-8637-ca828da84018

John Murphy of StockCharts.com mentioned on April 17/11 that over the last week Energy & Materials have reversed from being the strongest to the two weakest sectors and that Staples & Healthcare have reversed to the two strongest...and that "it doesn't necessarily mean that a major top is forming, but does suggest that market sentiment has turned more defensive which usually suggests a market correction or a period of consolidation"...one ETF I'll be glancing at from time to time over the next while for a possible clue on any sector rotation is PHO for a breakout of either 20.61 or 18.68 on high volume:    

ADVN/DECN Issues...60 min chart shows a pop up and close outside of the declining Regression Channel...note that the beginning of this channel was drawn from the highest close at the beginning of this last monthly Opt. Exp. period to the lowest close at the end (March to April/11)...this is the highest close outside the channel since the end-of-day close on March 30:    http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/073d7670-8316-450b-88d4-9435816a5520
                                ...The close on March 30 for the TF was 838.70 which was the highest daily close since the major market turnaround in March/09...Friday's close for the TF was 834.00...in and around these 2 price levels are a variety of Pivot Points for various timeframes: The Daily PP for Monday is 830.00...The Weekly PP for this coming week is 829.90...OPEX PP for May is 827.90...The Monthly PP is 818.40...the Quarterly PP is 817.50...other Pivot Points which are further away are: June OPEX PP is 799.40...1/2 Yearly PP is 720.50...Yearly PP is 718.60. Additionally there are a variety of Volume Profile POC levels on various timeframes which are in and around these 2 price levels: 824.30 for the March-April Opt. Exp. period, 846.00 for the month of April so far, 827.40 for the week just ended and 829.70 for Friday, April 15.

Daily chart of TF shows Volume Profile for the Monthly Opt. Exp. period which expired on Apr. 15...Opt. Exp. POC ended @ 824.30 (heavy red line)...price bounced @ confluence of 50sma, bottom of uptrending regression channel, Fib retrace & Fib fan lines):     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/6de0be6d-4498-4c76-b3ae-a5022bd376e6

Hourly chart of TF shows an ending on the week of a retrace up to a confluence level of a Fib extension & Fib fan lines:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/b928a9c0-a655-4968-8d52-d06589dd9018

Another hourly chart of TF shows the same ending on the week of a retrace into a confluence vicinity of other Fib lines:   http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/81ff6ece-edc6-4a63-a51f-68945d1f7989

CONCLUSIONS:  imo, the Daily bull uptrend is not over yet for TF as it is still within its most recent uptrending Regression Channel and has not yet made a lower swing low...but the low of 813.40 set on April 14 still needs to be confirmed as a higher daily swing low...price ended into some intraday Fib confluence resistance just below a 50% retracement from its high set on April 6 to its low set on April 14...additionally, TF ended just above sideways chop area shown on this 4 hourly (market hours only) chart:    
http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/9d121547-76d9-46bc-9518-fc24598b1ac9 ...further downside potential exists down to at least 800.00 (and still not violate its prior daily swing low of  770.20), but any major reversal on it below that level & on YM, ES & NQ would likely have to have to include commodities, currencies, ETFs, foreign ETFs, bonds...barring any catastrophic event in Japan...for now the NKD is high-basing on its Daily chart below its gap:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/1008b3a0-ffe5-4bcf-837f-b1b36bcdeb4e

I'll be watching to see how next week unfolds...and try and guage whether further intraday weakness develops below the 50% retracement level, or whether increased strength gathers above that area (835.80), generally, as well as keeping an eye on the above markets.